SFE Target Rate Tracker - August 2008

On the 1st of July 2008 the RBA left the official cash rate unchanged at 7.25%.

As at 8 July, the SFE 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures August 2008 contract was trading at 92.720, indicative of a 14% expectation that the RBA will change the Target Cash Rate by at least 25 basis points from 7.25% to 7.50% on the 6th of August 2008 (ie, compared to a 86% expectation of no rate change). The table below highlights how market expectations of a rate increase for August 2008 has evolved in recent days.

Trading DayNo ChangeIncrease to 7.50%
27 June71%29%
30 June74%26%
1 July79%21%
2 July79%21%
3 July81%19%
4 July86%14%
7 July83%17%
8 July86%14%

Click here for SFE Target Rate Tracker calculation.

Click here for a Graph on Yield and Implied Expectation of Change to Target Cash Rate for August 2008 Expiry Month.

Click here for the current Cash Rate Yield Curve and Implied Expectations of Changes to the Target Cash Rate for the next 18 months.

This document provides general information and is indicative only. It is not investment advice and readers should seek there own professional advice in assessing the effect of the information in their circumstances. ASX Limited and its related corporations accept no responsibility for errors or omissions, including negligence, or for any damage loss or claim arising from reliance on the information. Futures and options trading involves the potential for both profits and losses and only licensed brokers and advisors can advise on this risk.